UPDATE 1-Oil storage play unwound as contango narrows-Vitol
05.27.2009 - NEWS
The narrowing contango in oil markets has led traders to unwind their crude stockpiling or storage play, but stored oil is likely to be released slowly and not significantly depress prices, Vitol said on Tuesday. A flattening of the oil futures curve, which since the start of the financial crisis has been in contango where forward prices are higher than prompt, has threatened to unleash millions of barrels from storage onto physical markets and to hit prices. "I think it has unwound," Vitol's CEO Ian Taylor told Reuters on the sidelines of a trading summit in Singapore. "You are not going to be putting more oil on ships at these sorts of spreads." Oil traders have said Vitol, the world's largest independent trader, has booked a large portion of an armada of tankers anchored in Europe.

This storage play has netted millions in trading profits for oil firms, as a contango can make it more profitable to store oil instead of refine it, provided the discount between the front-month and second-month crude contracts is greater than the monthly cost of storage.

Over the past several months, a strong contango has contributed to a build up in U.S. onshore inventories to 19-year highs, and has also encouraged dealers to store some 100 million barrels of crude on tankers at sea.

“There’s a lot of stock around, and a lot of OPEC (spare) capacity,” Taylor said.

But Taylor said he did not expect this oil to flood quickly onto markets and drive prices down by $10 or more, with signs of a tentative global economic and oil demand recovery likely to support prices.

“It’s difficult to argue that $60 is not sustainable — gasoline is showing some signs of life,” he said. “If prices come back, so does the attraction of doing more upstream,” he said, adding Vitol wanted to strengthen a strategy of expanding its energy infrastructure, from producing oil to storage projects.

Taylor said that total volumes of oil trade had fallen this year, despite a rise in volumes on exchanges, as the over-the-counter (OTC) trade that makes up most physical oil dealing had dropped. But he did not expect this to last.

“I think there’s going to be a move back to OTC,” he said, pointing to an easing of the fear of defaults that plagued financial markets after Lehman’s collapse last year and a lack of high-risk counter parties in the industry.

Asia’s OTC fuel derivatives market, pounded last year by the credit crunch and high, volatile oil prices, has seen some confidence return.

Asked if a pullout of big banks from the energy sector amid the financial crisis was offering opportunities for trading firms like Vitol to fill the void, he said: “I’m not sure there is a big void… I don’t see a huge opportunity there.”

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