November 25, 2023 [FX Street]- Oil prices are easing a touch and trades in a very narrow intraday range this Friday, while this week is due to close off with a small gain. With the ceasefire starting in Gaza and energy transports in the region not risking any supply issues, Oil is discovering fair value near $74.
Meanwhile, as crude prices will remain relatively stable this Friday, traders can start to dig their heels in and brace for next week with OPEC+, COP28 and the LNG summit all to take place in the same week.
The US Dollar (USD) is easing a touch after its wild ride ahead of Thanksgiving. On Thursday, as expected, European traders could hear a needle drop in the forex markets as nearly every pair went sideways in a tight range. Volatility is due to pick up a bit this Friday with the US Purchase Managers Index due this afternoon.
Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $76.28 per barrel and Brent Oil trades at $81.15 per barrel at the time of writing.
Oil news and market movers: PMI to move things
- Expect no sharp moves upwards this Friday, unless it is headline driven, as the recent build up US crude stockpile and the Gaza Ceasefire will be two main bearish drivers for Oil prices this Friday,
- OPEC+ ministers will get together on Thursday via an online meeting to discuss production policy for the coming months. The meeting got postponed as severe tensions emerged over the output quotas as Saudi Arabia no longer wants to take the lion’s share.
- The United Nations’ COP28 climate change conference begins in Dubai on Thursday, when OPEC+ will be meeting.
- The recent build in US stockpile of 8.701 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, proves that the US is still pumping up Oil at a ruthless pace, in order to fill the gap left by the Russian embargo.
Oil Technical Analysis: Steady for next week
Oil prices are gearing up for a very eventful calendar last week with, next to the normal weekly data, a lot of headline risk could take place. Oil traders will need to brace for a tension-filled OPEC+ Meeting, which takes place together with the start of COP28. As if that is not enough, the World LNG Summit will take place in Athens. So traders will need to have nerves of steel to survive next week’s headline-driven trading environment.
On the upside, $80.00 is the resistance to watch out for. Should crude be able to jump above that again, look for $84.00 (purple line) as the next level to see some selling pressure or profit taking. Should Oil prices be able to consolidate above there, the topside for this fall near $93.00 could come back into play.
On the downside, traders are seeing a soft floor forming near $74.00. This level is acting as the last line of defence before entering $70.00 and lower. Once in that area, markets might factor in the risk of a surprise intervention from OPEC+ to jack up Oil prices once again.
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