Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieta’s announcement became official after appearing Tuesday in the country’s equivalent of the Federal Register, which noted that the independent constitutional body COFECE (Mexico’s Federal Competition Commission) recommended that the time frame be moved up in order to stimulate true competition and remove state-owned Pemex’s monopolistic hold over the fuel supply chain.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we did not have to wait until 2018 in order to achieve a fuel market which prices freely [absent the current monthly price-setting by the government],” Guido told OPIS.

Pena’s move, unveiled Monday in his keynote speech at IHS CERAWeek, aligns the time when companies other than Pemex can begin to import fuel with the expected spring 2016 finalization of requirements for licenses to import fuel into the Mexican market.

As reported earlier today by OPIS, expectations are that the shortened time frame will spur companies contemplating imports from abroad to complete their preparations, and Mexico is clearly looking to attract investment to build and expand the infrastructure necessary to handle the distribution of cross-border fuel supply.

OPIS notes that the contours of that initial import flow, as well as the rate at which new fuel terminals and the necessary transportation systems may be built, is an open question at this point.

For example, there is more than a little consternation among potential importers in Mexico regarding how to work with state-owned Pemex, which is in the process of de-monopolizing.

Pemex owns all of the fuel storage and transportation infrastructure, so any company looking to import gasoline or diesel from abroad will have to use those terminals and pipelines, at least to begin with. In addition, Pemex will be competing with those companies as a fuel supplier.

With Pemex facing the loss of domestic market share from new competitors, how much access to existing fuel supply infrastructure under Pemex’s control will those competitors have, and at what price?

It should be noted (as previously reported by OPIS) that the Mexican government is developing oil pipeline tariffs in time for the April opening of the market.

Business development consultant Guido sees access to Pemex terminals and pipelines as a likely constraint to aspiring new fuel suppliers. “Not until infrastructure investment is made or private companies take over operation of the infrastructure available, will we be able to start truly competing in Mexico,” he told OPIS. “Until then our hands will be tied behind our backs.”

As for available capital to build new energy infrastructure, banks and investment funds are likely to favor companies with proven track records in terminal operation when it comes to loans to lease, renew or build new assets, Guido said.

“I doubt they will be very willing to lend to smaller [marketer] groups who have no idea or experience in the area unless they hire personnel and outsource services for that purpose,” he explained.