Crude Oil Forecast: Break Down
12.08.2023 By Tank Terminals - NEWS

December 8, 2023 [Daily Forex]- The crude oil markets have experienced a notable downturn during the recent trading session, with a significant break below major support levels.

 

This trend is evident in both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil markets, reflecting growing concerns about a potential major recession and a consequent reduction in oil demand.

 

WTI Crude Market Trends

In the WTI Crude Oil market, the downward movement has been particularly pronounced. This market is currently grappling with various challenges, including the anticipation of a severe recession and a perceived lack of oil demand. Recent developments, such as OPEC’s inability to significantly cut production, have further exacerbated the situation, leading to market reactions that penalize OPEC for their decisions.

At present, any rallies in the WTI market are likely to encounter resistance, particularly around the $72.50 level, which had previously acted as a support. This resistance can be attributed to the concept of “market memory,” where past price levels influence future market behavior. If the market were to rise above this level, it could result in a more complex and unpredictable trading environment. However, the current trajectory suggests a potential decline towards the $67.50 region.

 

Brent Crude Market Dynamics

Similarly, the Brent crude market has seen a significant downturn, slicing through the $77 level with ease. The market is seemingly poised to reach the $72.50 level, identified as a recent low point. This area is expected to be turbulent due to market noise and the underlying sentiment of a substantial economic downturn, which implies a decrease in oil demand. Such a scenario paints a grim picture for the global economy.

For both WTI and Brent crude oil, the strategy seems to be selling short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion. This approach is likely to continue influencing market behavior in the coming days. Adding to the market volatility is the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll announcement on Friday, which could introduce additional fluctuations.

At the end of the day, the crude oil market appears to be in a state of decline, with the breakdown of major support levels indicating further potential drops. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not signaling an oversold condition, implying that the market has room for further decline. Overall, the current trends in crude oil markets highlight a challenging phase, influenced by economic forecasts, demand concerns, and market reactions to OPEC’s strategies.

 

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