June 19, 2026 [Reuters]- China’s oil consumption is expected to drop in 2026 amid a pivot to new energy and high ​oil prices due to the Iran war, according to a report ‌published by PetroChina’s research unit.

China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, is forecast to consume 753 million tons of oil in 2026, a 4.9% drop from 2025 when consumption ​rose by 3.6%, according to a report by PetroChina Planning and ​Engineering Institute.

Here are some other key figures from the report:

• China’s crude ⁠production is forecast at 217 million tons in 2026, up 0.5% year ​on year.
• Oil demand is plateauing and projected to fall to around 700 million ​tons by 2030.
• Oil refining capacity is set to reach 963 million tons per annum in 2026, an increase of 15 million tons.
• Refined oil consumption is forecast at 324 million ​tons in 2026, down 6.4% from 346 million tons in 2025, pointing ​to an accelerating contraction compared with a 3.5% drop last year.
• Jet fuel is an exception, ‌with ⁠consumption expected to grow 0.2% in 2026.
• Gas consumption is forecast to grow 1.3%–2.5% year on year in 2026, reaching 440–445 billion cubic metres, up from 434.3 bcm in 2025.
• Gas demand is expected to rise further to 530–550 ​bcm by 2030.
• New ethylene ​capacity additions are ⁠forecast at 6.72 million tons per annum in 2026, with 4.15 mtpa from naphtha crackers.
• Demand for key new materials ​such as polyolefin elastomers (POE) is forecast to grow 21.4% ​in 2026, ⁠while carbon fibre demand is expected to surge 48.7%.
• Domestic self sufficiency in POE and carbon fibre continued to improve in 2025, with domestic production as a ⁠percentage ​of total POE consumption up 11.9 percentage points ​and carbon fibre up 0.7 percentage points. The data did not show the total percent of ​consumption produced domestically.