June 26, 2026 [Oil Price]- Chinese crude oil imports this month are on course to book an even weaker month than May, according to Kpler data, which sees the daily average at just 6.4 million barrels, as cited by Bloomberg. Data from Vortexa suggests a similar daily import level, the publication added.

This would be the weakest import rate since October 2016, Bloomberg noted, and an 8% decline on May volumes. Those averaged 7.82 million barrels, according to customs data, down by 29% on the year and 17% on April. The May average was also a 38% drop on February volumes, before the war began. As of June, the difference from February import volumes is a negative 4 million barrels daily.

Some analysts expect Chinese demand to never recover to those pre-war levels. Rystad Energy has estimated that China has seen oil demand destruction of between 200,000 barrels daily and 600,000 barrels daily from pre-war levels, and that demand may not recover by the end of this year. Energy Aspects, meanwhile, sees a permanent oil demand loss of 300,000 barrels daily for China. FGE NexantECA, expects China to book an oil import drop of as much as 3.3 million barrels daily for the current quarter.

Others, however, expect China to start buying more as prices ease from mid-war highs, to replenish its inventories, which it used to weather the supply shock that the war caused. Indeed, many analysts have argued that China pretty much single-handedly prevented a massive global price shock by dipping into its 1-billion-barrel oil stockpile.

Meanwhile, tanker traffic recovery is pushing prices further down, and even the news of an Iranian strike on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz could not reverse the downward trend this week. Tankers are leaving Hormuz in droves—but not many are arriving to load, and this may become a problem.