October 16, 2025 [Oil Price]- An oil surplus long prophesied by traders may finally be materializing, according to Gunvor Group CEO Torbjörn Törnqvist, who says the market is shifting from tightness to glut—though not everyone is buying the narrative just yet.

“It looks like we are now moving into a bit of a different market,” Törnqvist told Bloomberg in London. “We have heard it before and people have been burned on that. But this time around at this stage I think there’s a bit more substance in the oversupplied narrative.”

The International Energy Agency also just raised its projection for record oil oversupply in 2026, forecasting a glut of up to 4 million barrels per day as both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers ramp up output. Törnqvist’s own estimate is roughly half that, but he concedes even a 2 million barrel per day overhang would be enough to tilt sentiment—and prices—lower.

“There’s a great deal more oil hitting the market at the time where there is no additional demand for it,” he said, adding that renewed trade tensions are compounding the bearish tone.

Crude prices already reflect that shift: U.S. benchmark WTI slipped below $60 a barrel last week for the first time since May and hovered near $58 on Tuesday. Some of the world’s largest oil companies reported weaker second-quarter trading results as geopolitical uncertainty shaved off the risk premiums that once propped up prices.

Still, the oversupply thesis rests on a big assumption—that producer nations, especially Saudi Arabia, will follow through with their pledged output increases. If Chinese stockpiling accelerates, much of that expected overhang could evaporate before it bites.

Skepticism aside, the world’s top traders appear to be bracing for a softer oil market—one where barrels are suddenly easier to find than buyers.