November 05, 2025 [Reuters]- The bosses of some of Europe’s biggest energy producers on Monday challenged forecasts of an oil supply glut next year, pointing to increasing demand and easing production.

“I don’t think we can have an excess of supply in 2026,” Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, echoing bullish comments from ministers and other executives.

“In the last 12 years we have been investing half of what we needed to invest to increase production,” Descalzi said. “Demand is increasing but we do not have enough supply and enough investments.”

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said annual oil demand growth was rising steadily at around 1%. While China’s demand growth has halved compared to five years ago, India is emerging as a new driver, he added.

“OPEC is unwinding part of its capacity…We could face a situation with a lower price, less investment, less spare capacity, and then prices will go up again.”

Murray Auchincloss, BP’s CEO, said oil supply growth outside OPEC+ could decline by April.

He said prices, which have dropped by about 13% so far this year, would depend on OPEC+ production decisions, Chinese stockpiling and the impact of trade sanctions.

“There is a supply increase that’s come outside of OPEC+,” Auchincloss said. “We think that finishes in about February, March, April, and then it’s likely that we see flat to declining production after that time period outside of OPEC+.”

He added that the industry has to expand in countries such as Abu Dhabi, Iraq and Libya to keep up with demand growth.

OPEC itself expects a relatively balanced market next year, with stronger demand but a much slower rate of expansion from outside of the wider OPEC+ group.

In contrast, the International Energy Agency said last month that the world oil market faces a surplus next year of as much as 4 million barrels per day, while a Reuters poll of analysts in September suggested an oversupply of 1.6 million bpd.
 

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