July 25, 2026 [ Oilprice ]- Europe avoided predicted jet fuel shortages by June despite the Strait of Hormuz disruption that cut ~14–20 million bpd of oil flows .
Early IEA forecasts warned Europe (which consumes ~1.6 mb/d of jet fuel but produces only ~1.1 mb/d and relied heavily on Middle East imports) could face physical shortages and flight cuts if it replaced just half the lost Gulf supply.
Instead, the system adapted rapidly: the IEA released a record 400 million barrels of emergency stocks, European and U.S. refiners boosted jet-fuel yields to record levels, and alternative cargoes arrived from the U.S., Canada, Nigeria, India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Higher prices also curbed some demand (airlines cut marginal routes) and attracted distant supply, converting a feared physical shortage into a costly price shock rather than widespread rationing or grounded flights.
Inventories remain tight (~38 million barrels of European jet fuel in early June, less than one month’s cover) and diesel markets are strained, so Europe has bought time but remains vulnerable to further shocks—highlighting that energy resilience works through expensive adaptation, not comfortable abundance.
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