April 08, 2024 [FX Street]- West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, consolidate in a tight range around $86.80 in the European session on Friday. The Oil prices are set to conclude the week in a bullish time for the second straight time. The black gold sees a strong bull run in two weeks due to deepening supply concerns and expectations of a sharp revival in the global oil demand.
Escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have reinforced fears of oil supply risks. This week, Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian oil refineries prompted upside risks to lower oil production, resulting in a fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions. US President Joe Biden criticized the event of Ukraine targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure as it could have drastic consequences for global oil prices.
In the Middle East region, air strikes by Israeli forces on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of Iran’s high-rank commanders, have deepened fears of Iran’s direct participation in the war in Gaza. Geopolitical tensions disrupt the supply chain, which increases the prices of various raw materials.
Meanwhile, a sharp recovery in the Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States has strengthened the outlook for oil demand. In the UK and the US, the Manufacturing PMI surprisingly returned to growth after contracting for more than a year. In the Eurozone, the Manufacturing PMI outperformed expectations but remains below the 50.0 threshold, which separates contraction from expansion. The oil prices have a direct relationship with the outlook of the manufacturing sector.
Going forward, investors will focus on the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The labor market data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) pivoting to rate cuts, which are currently expected in the June meeting.
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