Essentially, IEA contends that U.S. oil production will start to recover by mid-2017 and “only truly pick up speed beyond the 2017 forecast period” examined in IEA’s freshest report. IEA notes too that the pace of the decline and the speed of the recovery “remains uncertain,” a hint that they could be wrong in their predictions.

Nonetheless, according to IEA’s calculations U.S. shale oil production dropped an additional 60,000 b/d in March to 3.94 million b/d, or 500,000 b/d below that of the prior year. Following the plunge in the number of active U.S. oil rigs since 2014, the number of new well completions dropped to around 400 in March from nearly 1,200 a year earlier, IEA says using Rystad data. For the year as a whole, IEA forecasts a total of 5,000 wells to be completed in the primary tight oil plays, down from more than 14,000 at the peak in 2014 and 10,000 in 2015.

With oil prices back to the $50/bbl mark, IEA thinks that a slight uptick in completion activity will continue through 2016 and into 2017 as evidenced by recent rig count data showing increases. “Signs that the steep falls have ended might be emerging,” says IEA. Also the backlog of drilled but uncompleted wells will likely continue to decline in IEA’s estimation.

IEA notes that the Permian Midland area has seen a remarkable improvement in production but overall IEA points out that the “increase in activity is expected to be restricted by a number of factors” including the dire financial condition of some independent U.S. producers. Access to capital and the need to repair balance sheets will also cap upside in the short term.

“The speed at which the industry can re-staff and prepare equipment for the return to service will likely be at least six months and most probably even longer,” IEA concludes.

So production rates will decline in 2017 by 200,000 b/d in the light oil sector after a projected decline of 500,000 b/d in 2016.

Output growth in the Gulf of Mexico and in the NGL sector leaving total U.S. supplies unchanged from the 2016 average of 12.5 million b/d.

Finally, with respect to Canada’s oil production, IEA sees that country’s output returning to normal levels in 2017 following the impact of the wildfires on 2016 production. In 2017, says IEA, “Canada emerges as the largest source of non-OPEC supply growth expanding by 240,000 b/d to 4.6 million b/d.” That would compare to production levels that dipped to 3.5 million b/d in May from the wildfires.