December 12, 2024 [Reuters]- U.S. net crude oil imports are forecast to fall by 20% next year to 1.9 million barrels per day, their lowest since 1971, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, pointing to higher U.S. production and lower refinery demand.
The EIA expects the United States to produce 13.52 million bpd of oil in 2025, up from 13.24 million bpd in 2024, it said in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Meanwhile U.S. refiners are set to process 16 million bpd of crude oil in 2025, down by 200,000 bpd compared with 2024, the EIA said.
The decrease in refinery runs is partially due to a reduction in U.S. refinery capacity that will also contribute to the lower crude oil net imports in 2025, the EIA said.
“With refinery retirements already announced and rising production, fewer imported barrels will be needed while exports are likely to tick higher with greater crude availability,” said Matt Smith, Kpler lead Americas oil analyst.
Phillips 66 said in October that it will shut its large Los Angeles-area oil refinery late next year, and chemical maker LyondellBasell Industries detailed its long-announced plan last month to permanently shutter, its Houston refinery in 2025.
And a proposal by President-elect Donald Trump to impose 25% import tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico, including crude, could further crimp imports into the United States, Smith added.
Global oil demand is expected to average around 104.3 million bpd next year, the EIA said, down from its previous forecast of 104.4 million bpd.
Global oil output is forecast to average 104.2 million bpd in 2025, down from the prior forecast of 104.7 million bpd, according to the report.
The EIA now expects spot Brent crude prices to average $73.58 a barrel in 2025, down from its previous forecast of $76.06 per barrel. U.S. WTI spot prices will average $69.12 per barrel in 2025, down from its last estimate of $71.60.
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