April 16, 2026 [Reuters]- TotalEnergies expects a significant increase in first-quarter earnings from a strong trading performance, as well as in its upstream production and oil sales due to higher prices caused by the war in Iran, even as the conflict shut down 15% of the French group’s overall production, it said on Thursday.
The group’s margin on refining fuel in Europe during the quarter stood at $11.40 per barrel, up 192% from $3.90 a year earlier, and flat compared to the fourth-quarter 2025 margin of $11.40, it said in an earnings outlook.
It is due to report first-quarter earnings on April 29.
Benchmark Brent crude futures climbed to multi‑year highs near $120 a barrel after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, followed by Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its attacks on Gulf neighbours, which damaged liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Qatar supplying Total and Saudi Arabia’s SATORP refinery co-owned by Total.
Despite losing output of about 100,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day in the Middle East, additional production in other geographies helped keep overall production flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.
That led to a significant rise in first-quarter upstream income due to oil price gains, Total said, while downstream results also increased due to refineries running above 90% and “strong performance from crude oil and petroleum product trading activities in March.”
Total said strong trading around market volatility also significantly boosted its liquefied natural gas earnings.
British rivals BP and Shell have said the oil price volatility caused by the war significantly boosted their trading profits.
U.S. peers Chevron and Exxon said higher prices boosted their upstream earnings, but hit their downstream business due to financial hedging transactions undertaken around cargoes that could not be delivered due to the Strait of Hormuz’s closure.
Total’s Integrated Power results are expected to be around $500 million, roughly flat compared to a year ago.
Marketing and Services will also be in line with results a year ago.
The company expects a working capital build of $5 billion for the quarter — about $2.5-3 billion of which Total attributed to the seasonality of the business, with the remainder related to the impact of oil and product price rises on Total’s inventories.
Shares of TotalEnergies SE were down 0.8% at 76.04 euros at 0702 GMT, paring losses after falling as much as 3.2%.
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