January 21, 2026 [Oil Price]- TotalEnergies expects higher oil and gas production and stronger refining margins in the fourth quarter to have offset a drop of more than $10 per barrel in oil prices, the French supermajor said on Tuesday.

“Once again, despite a year?on?year decline of more than $10/b in oil prices, the cash flow from business segments this quarter is expected to remain at the same level as last year, supported by accretive Upstream production growth and continued improvement of Downstream results in the fourth quarter,” TotalEnergies said in a trading update. 

TotalEnergies, which reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results on February 11, expects its fourth-quarter oil and gas production to have risen by 5% year?on?year, leading to nearly 4% growth for the full year and exceeding the guidance of more than 3%

In the integrated LNG business, the company sees the result and cash flow in line with the third quarter of 2025, driven by higher LNG production, with the end of the turnaround at Ichthys LNG, and sales offsetting a 5% annual decline in the average LNG price.

TotalEnergies expects a jump in its Refining & Chemicals earnings and cash flow, thanks to “the good operational performance of the units enabling the capture of the increase of more than 30% of the margins.” 

The European refining margin for TotalEnergies’ assets soared by 231% from a year earlier to $85.7 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2025. 

TotalEnergies issued one of the most positive updates on what to expect from Big Oil’s fourth-quarter results. 

The other firms have warned they would report in the coming weeks lower earnings for the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter amid low liquids prices, weak trading, and reduced chemicals margins.

Exxon flagged early this month an $800 million to $1.2 billion hit to its fourth-quarter upstream earnings compared to Q3, while lower industry margins could eat up to $400 million of the earnings in the chemicals products division.

Shell warned of weak chemicals and products business for Q4, expecting the division to swing to a loss, on the back of a lower chemicals margin.

BP expects to book up to $5 billion in impairments for the fourth quarter, mostly related to its energy transition businesses, while oil trading was weak and gas trading was average at the end of 2025.