December 12, 2025 [Oil Price]- Canada’s oil producer Suncor Energy expects to grow its upstream production next year as it continues to invest in in-situ projects in the oil sands patch.

Suncor Energy expects annual upstream production of between 840,000 and 870,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, up by more than 100,000 bpd compared to 2023 and exceeding targets outlined at the 2024 Investor Day.

Suncor’s output at oil sands projects only is forecast at 785,000 bpd – 810,000 bpd, the company said in its 2026 corporate guidance.

Major economic investments planned or continuing in 2026 include in situ well pads, Mildred Lake East, West White Rose, Fort Hills North Pit development, and the ongoing execution of the Petro-Canada retail network optimization plan. 

Annual refining utilization is expected to average between 99% and 102% next year, reflecting continued improved performance across the entire downstream portfolio. Downstream utilization incorporates planned turnarounds at all four of the company’s refineries.

Suncor and other Canadian oil producers are boosting their oil sands production if they aren’t starting up major new projects. The secret sauce appears to be reducing maintenance times and extending maintenance cycles to squeeze more oil and raise efficiencies.

Despite lower oil prices, Canada’s oil sands production is expected to reach an annual all-time high of 3.5 million bpd this year, thanks to optimization and efficiency at producing assets, S&P Global Commodity Insights said in June in its latest outlook.

Output from Canada’s oil sands will continue to rise beyond this year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights’ 10-year production outlook. 

This year, production is set for a record annual average of 3.5 million bpd, up by 5% compared to the 2024 output, while oil sands volumes are expected to top 3.9 million bpd by 2030, per S&P Global Commodity Insights. The projection for 2030 is 500,000 bpd higher compared to the 2024 production level and is 100,000 bpd – or almost 3% — higher compared to the previous 10-year outlook.