SEA-LNG Response to UCL Report Exploring Methods for Understanding Stranded Value: Case Study on LNG Capable Ships
09.26.2022 By Ella Keskin - NEWS

September 26, 2022 [Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide ] – The recent study from UCL; Exploring methods for understanding stranded value: case study on LNG capable ships, is a flawed academic exercise, detached from reality.

 

In setting out a framework for their analysis the authors make innumerable contestable and unsupported statements.

Somewhat confusingly, given the focus of their paper on stranded value risk, they ignore the fact that LNG dual fuel engines already provide ship owners with an insurance against stranded assets, as they can burn traditional marine fuels and are currently doing so in Europe as a consequence of the unprecedented spike in LNG prices.

Further, their analysis is based on an assumption that the decarbonisation pathway offered by LNG via bioLNG in the medium term to synthetic, or e-LNG, in the long term, will be less “competitive” than ammonia or other electro- fuels. This is highly problematic for a number of reasons. Predicting the future production costs of electro-fuels such as e-ammonia, e-methanol and e-LNG is extremely difficult given that 80% of the cost of producing these fuels is associated with the cost of producing the common renewable hydrogen feedstock. This can only be produced from renewable energy sources which will take years to develop to the necessary scale. Suggesting a particular electro-fuel will ‘win’ based on price, is reckless and is, at best, a guess at this point in time.

Ammonia is a highly toxic fuel, with a volumetric energy density, approximately 50% that of LNG. This means more toxic fuel and less cargo. Regulatory agencies around the world will need to work to counter the dangers of ammonia to protect seafarers as well as port workers and port communities. Ammonia-fuelled engines are in the very early stages of development with massive uncertainties on issues such as pilot fuel requirements, GHG and NOx emissions and potentially deadly ammonia slip. Addressing these issues will demand significant amounts of time and money. Finally, massive infrastructure investments will be required to produce and deliver e-ammonia (and indeed other fuels such as e-methanol and e-liquid hydrogen) to the ships that may use it. Contrast this to the LNG pathway where the transportation and storage infrastructure already exists and is growing globally.

The results reported in this study are meaningless, based as they are on subjective, negative assumptions on LNG. Such flawed analysis can confuse the industry, potentially providing ship owners and investors with justification to sit back, wait and continue to emit GHGs rather than invest in a technology like LNG that offers immediate GHG reductions today together with a clear and competitive pathway to decarbonisation in the decades ahead.

 


Pro Trial: Access 11,340 Tank Terminal and Production Facilities

11,340 tank storage and production facilities as per the date of this article. Click on the button and register to get instant access to actionable tank storage industry data

WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to Threaten Support
12.01.2022 - NEWS
December 1, 2022 [DailyForex] – We are on the precipice of either forming a massive double ... Read More
Oil Updates — Crude Prices Up; Chevron Awaits Venezuelan Oil Cargoes
12.01.2022 - NEWS
December 1, 2022 [Arab News] – Oil rebounded on Tuesday after falling to more than 11-month... Read More
WTI, Brent Prices Slip
12.01.2022 - NEWS
December 1, 2022 [Financial Tribune] – Oil prices slid on Wednesday as Covid-19 cases in Ch... Read More
A Volatile Year for Oil Markets
12.01.2022 - NEWS
December 1, 2022 [TheStreet] – One month ago, with inventories of diesel fuel and gasoline ... Read More