August 23, 2024 [Reuters]- Russia’s oil exports from its western ports are expected to rise in September from their August levels, two traders said on Thursday, as the country’s oil refineries are set to start seasonal maintenance next month meaning more crude is available for export.

Russia’s western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk, the main outlets for Russia’s flagship Urals oil exports, will increase loadings to more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd), the traders said.

Russia’s oil exports via the western ports were set at around 1.95 million bpd in August.

Meanwhile, traders said September oil exports will also depend on fuel availability in Russia’s domestic market, where signs of shortages may lead to a revision of initial refinery maintenance schedules.

As per the initial plan, Russian offline primary oil refining capacity was set to rise to 3.38 million tons in September, from 1.71 million tons in August, but maintenance sometimes get postponed to October.

Higher offline refining capacity means more crude oil is available for exports.

Meanwhile, a suspension of Russia’s Lukoil oil exports via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia at the end of June provided additional seaborne Urals oil exports, traders said. If the issue is solved next month, those volumes are to be diverted from the ports, traders said.

On Wednesday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said negotiations are “in the final stages” to find a solution to Kyiv’s decision to bar Russian oil exporter Lukoil from using its infrastructure.

Also Russia is not able to increase oil exports much, as it has to cut oil production under the terms of an OPEC+ pact.

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