January 05, 2026 [ Supplychaindigital ]- Trump’s push to rebuild Venezuela’s shattered oil sector with US capital could reshape global energy and supply chains, but geopolitical risks loom.

In one of the most significant developments in global energy politics this decade, US President Donald Trump has announced that American oil companies will invest billions of dollars to rebuild Venezuela’s deteriorated energy infrastructure, following a US-led military operation that resulted in the capture of former leader Nicolás Maduro.

Speaking at his Mar-a-Lago estate on 3 January, Trump outlined an ambitious vision to restore Venezuela’s oil capabilities with American capital, technology and expertise.

In remarks to reporters at the estate, Trump says: “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country. They will be reimbursed.”

For Washington, the announcement aligns with Trump’s doctrine of energy dominance; leveraging US oil strength to exert influence on global markets while pursuing low domestic fuel prices.

However, the initiative also places major US energy firms into one of the riskiest environments in the world – a nation with the largest crude reserves but a devastated economy, fractured institutions and deep-seated political complexities.

Chevron, which already holds a 20% share of Venezuelan output under a US sanctions waiver, stands in pole position to benefit from any opening.

Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, both of which exited Venezuela after the Chávez-era expropriations, have remained cautious about re-entry.

Supply chain and logistics transformation
From a supply chain perspective, Venezuela’s rehabilitation could prove seismic. If political transition holds and infrastructure repairs begin, the nation could rapidly re-integrate into global trade flows, reshaping freight routes and refinery operations from the Caribbean to the US Gulf and beyond.

The state-run oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA)’s logistics networks and export terminals need full-scale reconstruction. Energy infrastructure has deteriorated to such an extent that even stabilisation requires sustained international presence, pointing to enormous potential for equipment manufacturers, engineering contractors, maritime firms and port operators.

For shippers, refiners and commodity traders, access to Venezuela’s heavy crude could rebalance product mixes in transatlantic supply chains. A modernised transport corridor spanning the Caribbean could bring new opportunities for fuel sourcing diversification, reducing reliance on Middle Eastern grades.

Navigating political uncertainty
Yet the risks somewhat overshadow the opportunities. The question of governance remains unresolved.

In his Mar-a-Lago remarks, Trump says the US will work with acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez to transition to a democratically elected government, but early signs suggest deep political friction.

Without constitutional clarity or credible guarantees on property rights, US firms may hesitate to commit long-term capital. Geopolitical tensions are also rising as Trump’s rhetoric extends beyond Venezuela: he warned that Colombia and Mexico could face “military action” if they fail to reduce the transnational narcotics trade.

Energy security analysts note that while Washington’s control over oil-rich nations may bolster supply stability in the long run, it also tightens the link between geopolitical actions and energy market reactions. In the near term, markets are sceptical; Brent crude rose just 0.9% to US$61.30 a barrel as traders weighed the uncertain timeline of Venezuelan output recovery.

For the global supply chain, the potential prize could prove transformative. Some say that within three to five years, a stabilised Venezuela could re-emerge as a top oil exporter and logistics hub, influencing port infrastructure investment across the Caribbean, altering freight lane economics and offering commodity buyers a major alternative sourcing option.