Only about 5% of Panama Canal traffic has historically comprised tankers, and this figure is unlikely to change after the expanded waterway opens for business June 26, the brokering house is forecasting.

The short-term impact from the recent removal of the U.S. ban on crude exports will likely be minimal due to still-decreasing domestic production, but Gibson does foresee some crude exports from the U.S. Gulf to the Far East. However, while the new canal’s 49-meter width will allow typical Suezmax shipping access, the limited depth of the canal at 15.2 meters does not meet the average Suezmax tanker’s maximum draft of 17 meters. Therefore, most Suezmax vessels will have to travel through the canal only partially loaded, which would affect transport economics on cargoes destined for the Far East.

Likewise, the low-cost of bunker fuel makes trips around Cape Horn for routes from the U.S. Gulf to the Far East economically competitive when placed against canal fees and draft limitations.

U.S. Gulf Coast refiners could benefit from the ability to transport larger parcels on long-range (LR) tankers to the west coast of South America, but limited port infrastructure in those parts will help ensure that medium-range (MR) vessels “remain the dominant players in the region,” Gibson said. Likewise, movements from the U.S. Gulf to the U.S. West Coast will be limited by the Jones Act.

The expanded canal was designed to cater to container, car carrier and very large gas container (VLGC) markets, so although a “notable” impact is likely to be seen after the opening, the tanker market is unlikely to be affected, Gibson concluded.

The canal project has been beset by contractual disputes, strikes and construction problems, which have pushed the inauguration back from the original date in October 2014 to coincide with the Panama Canal’s 100th birthday. Gibson said the final project cost could rise from the original $5.25 billion to near $7 billion.