12 August, 25[ Argusmedia ]- Opec has downgraded its forecast for US oil supply growth next year, paving the way for Brazil to become the largest source of non-Opec+ output expansion in 2026, according to its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).

US liquids output is now expected to rise by just 130,000 b/d — down by 80,000 b/d from last month’s report and sharply lower than the 510,000 b/d projected in January. The revision reflects sustained capital discipline and weaker momentum in drilling activity, the MOMR said. It follows a series of earlier downgrades to US oil supply growth for both this year and next.

Brazilian supply is forecast to increase by 160,000 b/d in 2026, making it the top contributor to non-Opec+ growth.

Total non-Opec+ supply is now projected to grow by 630,000 b/d next year — 100,000 b/d less than previously expected. Opec left its 2025 non-Opec+ supply growth forecast unchanged at 810,000 b/d.

Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — rose by 335,000 b/d to 41.94mn b/d in July, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus. The group estimates the call on Opec+ crude at 42.5mn b/d in 2025 and 43.1mn b/d in 2026.

On the demand side, Opec has raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d to 1.38mn b/d, bringing total demand to 106.52mn b/d. The upgrade reflects stronger expectations for consumption in the US, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Demand growth for 2025 was left unchanged at 1.29mn b/d, with total consumption seen at 105.14mn b/d.

But there remains considerable uncertainty regarding global oil demand, with other outlooks such as the IEA projecting much lower consumption.

The IEA sees oil demand growing by just 700,000 b/d to 103.68mn b/d in 2025, and by another 720,000 b/d to 104.40mn b/d in 2026. This equates to a gap of about 1.5mn b/d between Opec’s and the IEA’s 2025 demand projections, rising to more than 2mn b/d in 2026.