Oil’s Apocalyptic April Could Reverberate for Years to Come
04.02.2020 By Ricardo Perez - NEWS

April 2, 2020 [Bloomberg – Published on March 31, 2020] – Analysts see oil demand falling by 15-22 million b/d in April. This will likely be an industry game-changer, Goldman says.

Oil is entering a period of unparalleled demand destruction this month that promises to transform the industry for years to come.

Daily consumption will plummet by 15 million to 22 million barrels in April from a year earlier, according to estimates from some of the world’s most influential energy analysts. The crash has already led to refiners slashing processing, drillers halting output and storage tanks swelling across the world.

This will likely be a game-changer for the industry,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin said in a March 30 note. “It is impossible to shut down that much demand without large and persistent ramifications to supply.”

The demand slump is being exacerbated by former OPEC+ allies Saudi Arabia and Russia pumping as much crude as they can in a battle for market share, heaping additional pressure on shipping, tanks and pipelines. Goldman sees around 20 million barrels a day flowing into storage in April, while IHS Markit expects the world will run out of space to store oil by the middle of the year.

Few in the industry will be spared. April is also set to be the worst ever month for global jet fuel demand, while industry consultant FGE forecasts American gasoline consumption will plunge by 50% from a year earlier. Energy Aspects Ltd. predicts global benchmark Brent crude may drop to near $10 a barrel, a level not seen in more than two decades.

The April crash sets up a bleak second quarter for the market, potentially causing some producers to go to the wall and destabilizing governments in many OPEC nations. A near-term recovery in prices seems unlikely, with around 70% of 130 respondents to a Bloomberg Intelligence survey saying they see Brent still below $30 a barrel by June.

About 70% of Bloomberg Intelligence’s 130 survey respondents see Brent below $30 by June, prior to OPEC’s next meeting. With the world’s biggest economies in lockdown due to Covid-19 and Brent at a 17-year low, a near-term recovery seems unlikely as demand remains in free-fall and Saudi Arabia and Russia entrench supply dominance.

While the crisis will see the energy industry finally achieve the restructuring it so badly needs, according to Goldman, the push for de-carbonization could hinder its recovery when demand returns.


Click Here to Access Today a 4,900 Tank Terminal Database With a Pro Trial
Click on the button and register to get instant access to actionable tank storage industry data

ONGC Inks Pact with HPCL for Sale of Oil from Mumbai Offshore
09.28.2023 - NEWS
September 28, 2023 [Projects Today]- Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has signed an agreeme... Read More
Enagas Wraps Up Stake Purchase in Germany’s HEH
09.28.2023 - NEWS
September 28, 2023 [LNG Prime]- Spanish LNG terminal operator Enagas has closed the previously a... Read More
Qatarenergy Signs New LNG Ship- Building Agreement Valued at QR14.2 Billion with HD Hyundai Heavy Industries
09.28.2023 - NEWS
September 28, 2023 [Qatar energy]- QatarEnergy signed an agreement with Korea’s HD Hyundai Heav... Read More
Qatar Energy Announces 10-Year Naphtha Supply Agreement with Marubeni Corporation
09.28.2023 - NEWS
September 28, 2023 [Qatar Energy]- QatarEnergy has announced the signing of a long-term naphtha s... Read More