October 14, 2015 [OPIS] - Global oil demand will slow in 2016 to 1.2 million b/d, from a gasoline-led five-year high of 1.8 million b/d seen this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
The 2016 forecast is 150,000 b/d lower than the IEA estimated last month.
About 400,000 b/d of demand growth seen in 2015’s third quarter was attributed to expanding U.S. oil deliveries amid rising consumption of gasoline, according to the Paris-based agency’s monthly oil report.
Gasoline accounted for just under one in every two extra barrels of crude delivered in the July through September period, with China and the U.S., the world’s two largest oil consumers, contributing to two-thirds of demand growth, the report said.
The oil market is likely to be oversupplied throughout 2016, the Oil Market Report said, citing a “projected marked slowdown” in demand growth amid the arrival of additional Iranian barrels and recent downgrades to the macro-economic outlook.
Global demand is forecast at 95.7 million b/d in 2016 and 94.5 million b/d in 2015.
Demand for oil in Europe rose 200,000 b/d in the third quarter compared to the prior-year period, with gains reflecting the economic slowdown seen in late 2014, the report said.
Preliminary estimates showed OECD Europe gasoline consumption climbed 0.4% in August to 1.99 million b/d, while jet fuel and kerosene was 3.7% higher at 1.45 million b/d. Diesel demand grew 4.8%, to 4.7 million b/d.
Global refinery runs were said to be at 79.4 million b/d in September as autumn maintenance began, although throughputs were seen nearly 2 million b/d higher than a year ago. Europe throughput was at 12.2 million b/d in the third quarter, and estimated at 12 million b/d for the last three months of 2015.
