This will present fresh opportunities for certain oil trades for medium-haul Aframax tankers between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the canal as well as longer-haul Suezmax voyages.

The 1-million-bbl capacity Suezmax and the 700,000-bbl capacity Aframax tankers are mainly used for dirty products and crude transportation.

Currently, only a 450,000-bbl capacity Panamax-size tanker could transit through the Panama Canal, but after its ongoing expansion, the canal will be able to accommodate tankers as large as Suezmax vessels.

It is noted that the actual tanker capacity would depend on vessel draft limitations at individual ports.

Charles R. Weber said Suezmax tankers could become attractive for hauling oil from the Middle East and West Africa to the U.S. West Coast, but Caribbean-to-Asia will only be shortened via the canal transits to destinations north of Singapore.

This could limit Suezmax tanker demand and preserve the scale advantage of 2-million-bbl capacity Very Large Crude Carriers for such trades, it said.

Despite the mostly positive impact of the Panama Canal expansion, the tanker broker noted that only 65% of the Suezmax tanker fleet will be capable of transiting the new canal locks with a standard 130,000-ton cargo and 20% will be restricted to oil cargoes smaller than 130,000-ton cargo due to the new canal’s draft restrictions.

About 15% of the Suezmax fleet will be excluded altogether from canal transits due to beam restrictions.

Last month, the Panama Canal Authority approved both new tolls for existing canal locks and a new toll structure for the new, larger locks effective April 1, 2016, to coincide with the completion of the expansion project.

Currently, tolls are assessed on the basis of Panama net tons (PCNT), based on the Panama Canal Universal Measurements System (PC/UMS).

PC/UMS uses a formula to measure total ship volume; specific toll values are levied for various band increments of PCNTs, therefore, depending on the laden or ballast condition of transiting vessels.

For tanker vessels transiting the existing locks from effective date of the new tolls, the same toll structure will remain, though the $/PCNT toll rates will increase (albeit relatively modestly compared to Charles R. Weber’s earlier expectations).

However, for laden tankers transiting the new larger canal locks, which include Aframaxes and Suezmaxes, a new structure will apply to laden voyages which levies tolls on tankers in addition to a separate toll based on metric ton increments of the volume of cargo onboard the vessel.

Based on this structure, the average PCNT for the Panamax tanker fleet and estimated average PCNT for Suezmax and Aframax vessels (precise PCNT data is not presently available for these tanker classes), Charles R. Weber notes the economy of scale that generally applies to larger tankers and which is distorted for tankers transiting the existing canal locks, will extend now to larger tanker classes capable of transiting the new canal locks.

Meanwhile, OPIS notes that while more dirty products and crude could go to Asia, the expanded canal will also allow the 630,000-bbl capacity Long Range 2 clean products tankers to transit from west to east.

Currently, only the 420,000-bbl capacity Long Range 1 clean products tankers are able to transit the Panama Canal. LR tankers cater to both clean and dirty products markets.

The U.S. is expected to see a growing naphtha production and exports in the near future amid high refinery utilization rate and healthy refining margins. Naphtha is a main feedstock for naphtha crackers in Asia for production of petrochemicals.