December 18, 2024 [Oil Price]- Since 2022, several countries worldwide have announced plans to expand their natural gas production capacity over the next decade, with multiple new large-scale projects coming online over the last three years.
This was largely driven by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russian energy, which led to a global shortage of natural gas. As countries across Europe and North America hurriedly sought out alternative supplies of the fuel, several governments decided to back new gas expansion plans to ensure the future of their energy security, with many viewing natural gas as a necessary mid-term transition fuel.
A recent report by the climate group Reclaim Finance states that $200 billion in funding has been earmarked by large banks for new gas terminals, in addition to $252 billion from around 400 other investors. While most major banks have committed to a shift toward “net-zero” banking, many continue to define natural gas as a transition fuel, allowing for funding exceptions. The wave of new gas projects comes in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the widespread energy shortages that followed. Many countries have shifted their reliance on Russia for gas supplies to alternative producers, such as Norway and the U.S., over the last almost three years.
“Oil and gas companies are betting their future on LNG projects, but every single one of their planned projects puts the future of the Paris Agreement in danger,” Reclaim Finance campaigner Justine Duclos-Gonda said in a statement this month. “Banks and investors claim to be supporting oil and gas companies in the transition, but instead they are investing billions of dollars in future climate bombs.”
The report found that eight liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal projects and 99 import terminal projects were completed between 2022 and 2024, increasing the global export capacity by 7 percent and the import capacity by 19 percent. In addition, LNG developers have a project pipeline of 156 new LNG terminals worldwide to be completed by the end of the decade, consisting of 63 export terminals and 93 import terminals.
This has raised concerns among climate experts over the potential emissions increase in relation to new gas projects. The report stated that methane leaks from these terminals could produce as much as 10 gigatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, which is nearly equivalent to the annual emissions of all operational coal plants globally.
In October, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2024 warned that there could be a severe oversupply of gas by the end of the decade if all planned projects go ahead. This will likely lead to a sharp drop in gas prices. The IEA predicts that the price of gas imported into the EU could fall from a record average high of over $70 per million British thermal units (MBtu) in 2022 to just $6.50 by 2030.
The U.S. has taken the lead in LNG production, overtaking Qatar and Australia to become the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy and Information Administration (EIA). U.S. LNG exports averaged 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), a 12 percent increase on 2022 levels. Australia and Qatar each exported between 10.1 Bcf/d and 10.5 Bcf/d annually between 2020 and 2023. Russia and Malaysia were the fourth- and fifth-highest LNG exporters globally over the last five years.
There are no signs of slowing for the U.S., which has an extremely large LNG project pipeline for the next decade. Three new LNG export projects, currently under construction, are expected to come online by the end of 2025. Earlier this year, the EIA forecast that U.S. natural gas exports would grow by 6 percent in 2024 compared to 2023, to 13.6 billion Bcf/d. Net exports are set to increase even further in 2025, by an additional 20 percent, to 16.4 Bcf/d. This is not just a U.S. phenomenon, with North American LNG exports on track to more than double by 2028, as the U.S., Canada, and Mexico all expand their export capacities.
By July, 42 LNG projects across Europe were planned to start in 2025. The current European project pipeline is expected to increase the continent’s LNG capacity by 121 million metric tonnes a year by 2030. However, a decrease in European demand means that utilization rates at many operating terminals have fallen below 50 percent. Energy experts are growing increasingly concerned over the potential overinvestment and underutilization of the market.
The race to develop new LNG terminals in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent global gas shortages may be short-sighted, if demand predictions from the IEA are to be believed. The rapid expansion of the global LNG market could lead to a huge oversupply, thereby driving down gas prices dramatically over the next decade. However, this does not appear to be deterring many of the developers building these new projects, who expect demand to remain high as gas is used globally as a ‘transition fuel’.
