April 24, 2026 [Reuters]- Billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries is set to report a decline in March-quarter profit on Friday, as the Middle East war-driven spike in crude prices weighed ​on its mainstay oil-to-chemicals business, analysts said.

The company’s consolidated net profit ‌is expected to fall 3.7% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, while revenue is seen rising 8.1%, according to the average estimate of six brokerages, as calculated by Reuters.

Reliance Industries, which operates the ​world’s largest refining complex in western India and derives nearly half its ​revenue from the segment, faces pressure as Brent crude has surged more ⁠than 40% since late February amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and disruptions ​to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Refiner (including Reliance) earnings should in theory benefit from ​higher cracks, but high crude premiums and operating costs could be a material, uncertain drag,” analysts at JP Morgan said.

Jefferies said the operating profit in the oil-to-chemicals segment is likely to be hit by the ​scarcity premium on crude, higher freight costs and increased production of loss-making liquefied petroleum ​gas.

The company’s shares have fallen about 8% since it reported its third-quarter earnings on January 16, ‌underperforming ⁠the benchmark Nifty 50, which is down 5.8% over the same period.

RETAIL TO SLOW WHILE TELECOM HOLDS FIRM

Brokerages expect slower growth in the Indian oil-to-telecom conglomerate’s retail segment amid intensifying competition, while its telecom business likely performed better on continued subscriber growth.

Jefferies ​expects Reliance’s retail business ​to have grown ⁠at 8% in the March quarter, which would mark a second consecutive quarter of sub-10% growth.

Analysts expect the telecom business to sustain strong subscriber additions ​and upgrades to higher-priced plans.

Centrum forecasts Reliance Jio to have ​added 5 ⁠million users to reach 520 million in the March quarter, while average revenue per user likely firmed marginally from the previous quarter to 216 rupees.