May 13, 2016 [OPIS] - India is leading global oil demand, which edged higher to reach 95 million b/d in the first quarter, as the International Energy Agency estimated January-through-March growth at 1.4 million b/d, higher than previously anticipated.
Still, demand growth is 60% lower than the five-year peak of more than 2.4 million b/d seen in the third quarter of 2015, reflecting a slowdown the Paris-based agency anticipates will continue through 2016 amid faltering economic conditions.
India, the world’s fourth-largest oil consumer, posted its strongest-ever pace of demand growth, at 400,000 b/d, the IEA said in its monthly oil report published on Thursday, the 12th of May 2016, with transport fuel demand the biggest factor.
Global oil products consumption this year is forecast at 95.6 million b/d, 1.2 million b/d higher than 2015, a forecast unchanged for seven consecutive quarters.
Although Brent crude prices recently fell briefly into backwardation amid North Sea maintenance expectations, further price rises for oil will be limited by inventories, the IEA said in its monthly oil report published today.
Supply outages in Nigeria, Ghana and Canada were pegged at 1.5 million b/d in May.
The IEA said that the global surplus of oil will “shrink dramatically” in the second half of 2016, with a 1.3-million-b/d rise in stocks forecast in the first half but just 200,000-b/d rise in the last six months of 2016.
India and Saudi Arabia are leading rises in global refinery throughput, forecast at 79.6 million b/d in 2016. Gains of 700,000 b/d are less than anticipated crude demand growth of 1.2 million b/d, the IEA added in the report.
