March 27, 2026 [NOS News] [FUENTE ]- The hope among companies and governments for a quick end to the energy war in the Gulf is fading. Concerns are growing about a long-term energy crisis with shortages that will also affect Europe.
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Even if a ceasefire and free passage for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are achieved soon, the price effects of the war will remain noticeable for a long time, according to analysts.

The oil price is currently averaging between $100 and $110 per barrel. It could rise further to $150 per barrel, says Rob Kapito of asset manager BlackRock. “Even if we announce tomorrow that the war is over,” he told Bloomberg.

In Europe, particularly kerosene (jet fuel) and diesel are expected to become scarcer, according to Shell.

The oil market reacts nervously every day to fluctuating reports from the US. Threats of even larger attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure drive prices up. As soon as prices rise, President Trump posts messages about hopeful peace negotiations. This temporarily calms the market, but serious doubts quickly return about the sincerity of those messages.

Last night, Wall Street in New York closed with the largest stock market drop since the start of the war. Trump responded within 15 minutes by extending the bombing pause on Iranian energy facilities. At the same time, the number of US military personnel in the region who could be deployed to capture the Iranian oil island Kharg and the coastline of the Strait of Hormuz is increasing.

“It’s one day this, the next day that,” says Patrick Kulsen, director of market research firm Insights Global, which specializes in fuel stock data. “Given the international situation, the oil price is still relatively moderate.”

Kulsen does observe a worrying decline in available kerosene stocks. The price of aviation fuel is rising much more sharply than crude oil, and like diesel, it largely comes from the Gulf region.

In Europe there is currently no fuel shortage yet, but that will change according to Shell CEO Wael Sawan. He spoke this week at an oil conference in Houston, Texas: “South Asia took the full hit first. It has now spread to Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, and will mainly reach Europe in April.”

The Netherlands is not expected to face real shortages anytime soon, analysts say. The port of Rotterdam has enormous oil storage capacity, and local refineries produce more fuel than the country consumes.

“Physically, it won’t run dry here quickly,” says Kulsen. The bigger risk is that kerosene becomes unaffordable for airlines, and diesel becomes too expensive for inland shipping and transport companies.

The Dutch government indicated this week that it is still too early for price compensation measures for consumers. Finance Minister Heinen warned parliament that the global energy crisis could become much larger, and in that case, money must still be available to support people who really need it.

National Oil Crisis Plan

In the meantime, the preparatory phase of the National Oil Crisis Plan has quietly started. Oil companies, traders, and storage operators are meeting with the government to discuss stocks, risks, and possible measures in case of actual shortages.

In the worst-case scenario, the government can introduce “rationing and export restrictions at EU or national level,” as described in the crisis plan. Fuel would then be prioritized for essential services such as food supply, medical care, and security.

“The content of the discussions with the government is confidential,” says Erik de Vries of the Dutch interest group for private fuel traders (NOVE). Today he is meeting with representatives of the inland shipping sector about diesel prices.

“There is genuine preparation for a situation with shortages,” says De Vries. Even though shortages have not yet occurred, concerns are already high. Diesel prices in the Netherlands are significantly higher than in neighboring countries, causing inland ships and trucks to refuel as much as possible across the border.

De Vries fears that if the price differences grow even larger, fueling abroad will stop trade in the Netherlands before an actual physical shortage arises.