Orbital Insight, a California company that uses satellite images and algorithms to track above-ground oil storage in Saudi Arabia and other countries, says its analysis of the kingdom’s crude inventories in recent months has thrown up an interesting anomaly.

The kingdom, which has led Opec and Russia in co-ordinated output cuts since January, has for months been reporting to official agencies that its oil held in storage has been falling, which alongside lower production has been one factor that has helped propel Brent crude oil back above $60 a barrel.

But Orbital’s analysis of satellite imagery suggests that Saudi Arabia’s above-ground tanks — whose floating roofs allow them to see when oil inventories are rising or falling by measuring shadows cast across the top of the tanks — have seen no real change in the past 18 months.

This, Orbital says, is interesting because before early 2016, movements in above-ground storage closely tracked the trend in Saudi’s official numbers submitted to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative that are crucial for traders and analysts trying to get a grip of the near 100m barrel-a-day oil market.

While Saudi Arabia has reported to Jodi that its oil stocks have declined by about 70m barrels since early 2016, the Orbital analysis suggests the above-ground tanks have actually seen inventories rise marginally over the same period. Saudi Arabia’s oil ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Before traders jump to the conclusion that Saudi Arabia, which has an obvious interest in seeing stocks fall as it attempts to support the market, has been cute or dishonest with its reporting, Orbital says its analysis comes with a few important caveats.

For one, Saudi Arabia’s official storage numbers include oil held overseas, in key regional hubs. It also covers line-fill for pipelines and underground tanks that cannot be monitored by eyes in the sky. These factors may account for why the numbers no longer seem to match up — though they do raise other questions.

Orbital says that changes in inventory levels in above-ground domestic storage tanks are normally noticeable normally first as they are easiest to access. Saudi’s Jodi numbers and what Orbital can see through its algorithmic analysis of the satellite imagery had previously tracked each other closely.

“The floating tank data is the part that we think is most indicative of short-term changes in storage,” said James Crawford, chief executive of Orbital Insight. “The big question is why that no longer jives with the government data that shows a pretty big drop.” So if Saudi is drawing oil from elsewhere, the question is why? One energy consultant, who has clients in Saudi Arabia, said several factors were probably at play. He said the kingdom had firstly been drawing inventories at storage tanks it controls overseas to supply the market. Demand has been booming.

There was also a need for higher storage levels at home. Saudi Arabia has increased its domestic refining capacity in recent years. But the most intriguing suggestion for the shift is more strategic: Riyadh’s own concerns about rising tensions with its neighbours.

“[The] reason for no real deep stock draw in [the] kingdom will be mainly security related,” said Cyril Widdershoven, who runs the Verocy consultancy. That suggests, he said, that Saudi Arabia is concerned enough about its deteriorating relationship with Iran, and to a lesser degree Qatar, to keep higher oil stocks at home in case of any disruption.

With Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman saying this week that Iran’s support for Houthi fighters in Yemen, and the provision to them of missiles capable of striking deep into the kingdom, constitutes an act of war, it is certainly an intriguing theory.

At times of heightened tension between two of Opec’s biggest producers it is one the market may start tracking closely.

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