August 7, 2023 [Daily Forex]- One of the key factors influencing these markets is the uncertainty surrounding OPEC’s production cuts. Market participants are closely monitoring whether these cuts will persist as a major issue or if concerns about the global economy will take precedence.
Additionally, the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average has become a critical level to watch, potentially offering support to the market. However, whether or not this happens remains to be seen over the next several days.
Shifting focus to Brent, although the markets initially fell, there seems to be an attempt at recovery. The 200-Day EMA has shown some support, forming a hammer-like candlestick pattern. The sustainability of this rebound remains uncertain, and it hinges on various upcoming events, such as the Friday jobs figure that could significantly impact the US dollar. This, in turn, will have its own ripple effect on the crude oil market. Traders will closely assess employment data to gauge future demand for oil.
Looking ahead, the 50-Day EMA is also anticipated to act as a level of support, but given the recent substantial outflows from the market, a pullback seems reasonable. Until the jobs data is released, a period of consolidation is expected, with limited directional movement. Despite Wednesday’s significant sell-off, it appears that the market’s overall sentiment has not undergone any significant changes. With this, I am cautiously optimistic on the prospect of oil reaching higher in the next couple of weeks.
In the end, the WTI Crude Oil and Brent markets are facing a delicate balance between stabilization and volatility. OPEC production cuts and economic concerns are among the top factors impacting market sentiment. Traders should closely monitor critical support levels like the 200-Day EMA and the upcoming employment data for the US dollar’s influence on oil demand. While some consolidation is expected in the near term, the potential for further price shifts looms on the horizon. Market participants should exercise caution and adapt their strategies to respond to the ever-changing landscape of the energy market.
Potential Signal: I am bullish on oil. However, it is going to be noisy, and therefore you need to be cautious with your position size. The 200 EMA has been held, and I am buying RIGHT NOW. With the market breaking above $86 in the UK OIL market, I am adding ten percent to the original position for a move to the $90 level. A stop loss would be below $82.
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