December 16, 2025 [Reuters]- China’s flows of crude oil into storage probably jumped in November to the highest in six months, as a surge in imports overwhelmed steady refinery processing rates.

China’s surplus of crude was about 1.88 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, almost three times the 690,000 bpd in October and the most since April’s 1.89 million bpd, according to calculations based on official data.

The rate at which China has been adding to inventories is increasingly being seen as a key factor in crude oil demand in the world’s biggest importer, as well as adding a layer of uncertainty into price forecasts.

China’s refineries processed 14.86 million bpd in November, largely steady with October’s 14.94 million bpd and up 3.9% from November last, according to data released on Monday by the statistics bureau.

Crude imports were 12.43 million bpd in November, a 27-month high and up 8.7% from October’s 11.39 million bpd.

Domestic oil production was 4.31 million bpd in November, up slightly from 4.24 million bpd in October.

This means that a total of 16.74 million bpd was available to refiners in November from imports and domestic output.

Subtracting the volume of crude processed from the total available leaves a surplus of 1.88 million bpd.

China does not disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of its strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of oil processed from the total crude available from imports and domestic output.

It is worth noting that not all the surplus crude was likely to have been added to storage, with some being processed in plants not captured by the official data.

But even allowing for those gaps, it is clear that from March onwards, China was importing crude at a far higher rate than necessary to meet domestic fuel demand.

For the first 11 months of the year, the surplus crude amounts to 980,000 bpd, given combined imports and domestic production of 15.80 million bpd and refinery throughput of 14.82 million bpd.

The surplus has been built up since March and came after refiners made a rare draw on inventories in January and February, when processing rates exceeded available crude by about 30,000 bpd.

This was the first time since September 2023 that throughput exceeded the amount of crude from imports and domestic output.

PRICE EFFECT

The draw on inventories at the start of 2025 came amid rising oil prices, with benchmark Brent futures reaching their highest this year, at $82.63 a barrel, on January 15, having risen steadily from early December levels around $70.

Since then crude prices have trended lower, with occasional spikes higher due to geopolitical tension, such as the brief conflict between Israel and Iran in June.

Brent dropped as low as $60.15 a barrel on Tuesday during Asian trade, its weakest since October 20, amid hopes that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine may be reached.

That would add to an expected supply surplus if any pact allowed Russian oil and refined products to return to the global market.

The lower trend in oil prices is encouraging China’s refiners to increase imports and boost flows into inventories.

December’s crude surplus is likely to be even bigger than that of November, with commodity analysts Kpler estimating China’s seaborne imports will rise to 12.59 million bpd, a figure that does not include pipeline imports from Russia of almost 1 million bpd.

Higher crude import quotas and likely steeper discounts on Russian crude are also boosting China’s oil imports.

With China believed to still be some way off its intended level for its strategic reserves, it is reasonable to expect that if crude prices remain biased softer Beijing will continue to lift imports in order to build inventories.

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The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.