May 26, 2025 [Reuters]- Australia’s Origin Energy downgraded the annual forecast for its UK business on Monday, due to unseasonably warm weather across March and April in Britain, and one-off impacts, sending its shares to a near one-month low.

Shares of the Sydney-based company shed around 4.4% as of 0508 GMT, after hitting their lowest level since May 1 earlier in the session. The broader ASX200 benchmark index traded flat.

Origin said it now projects a loss of up to A$100 million ($65.19 million) in its share of annual underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization from Octopus Energy.

Origin had previously estimated a positive contribution of up to A$100 million, compared with an underlying EBITDA of A$55 million last year.

Origin downgrading its Octopus Energy forecast “is a significant difference and investors clearly weren’t prepared for such a swing in the negative direction”, said Grady Wulff, a market analyst at Bell Direct.

The company said since the UK recorded very warm weather in April, it led to a decrease in electricity and gas volumes.

The energy retailer now also expects its full-year underlying EBITDA from Energy Markets to be between A$1.3 billion and A$1.4 billion, compared with the previous outlook of A$1.1 billion to A$1.4 billion.

The firm said it raised the lower end of its previous forecast due to operational improvements, while adding that electricity volumes have been strong.

Origin had reported a full-year underlying EBITDA of A$1.66 billion for Energy Markets last year.

Earlier this month, Origin announced an anticipated cut in its EBITDA share from Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) for the six months ended June 2025, after APLNG reduced prices on sales to China’s Sinopec.

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