May 22, 2026 [Oil Price]- It still seems that oil markets are believing their own theories more than hard-hitting warnings from Arab national oil companies. Even with all signs on red, optimism still shows oil prices as depressed, not really reflecting reality at all. When Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s CEO, and more or less one of the most outspoken visionaries in the Gulf, publicly warns that oil flows from the Persian Gulf will remain severely disrupted until at least mid-2027, markets, traders, and financials should pay attention and act. Instead, traders, shipping executives, hedge funds, and even parts of the energy industry seem to behave as if the Strait of Hormuz crisis is a temporary logistical disturbance, which will be easy to solve. Optimism about the effects of reopening lanes, deploying more naval escorts, or waiting for diplomacy to return remains too high. It seems markets and pundits are dangerously detached from reality.

At present, the global oil market still prices in a miracle scenario: Hormuz partially reopens, insurance rates normalize, exports resume, and, of course, Gulf producers will rapidly restore pre-crisis output and shipping flows. This fantasy is not only eroding market confidence but also poses a danger to all.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, on-the-ground realities, as seen in infrastructure upgrades such as the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline and security improvements, make it clear that the Gulf export system has fundamentally changed. The facts signal a prolonged period of impairment. Markets should also no longer confuse “open water” with “normal operations”; these are no longer the same.