July 14, 2026 [StoneX]- Asian oil demand is rebounding after a sharp drop during the Middle East disruption, with China’s crude imports recovering from an eight-year low of around 8 million b/d and India reversing a 22% import cut.
Exxon alone could see a $5 billion jump in Q2 adjusted earnings to $15.7 billion, with similar strong results expected from Chevron and Shell due to higher oil prices and export demand.
Despite pressure from the Trump administration to “drill baby drill” and expand production, major oil companies are refusing to ramp up drilling, viewing the profit surge as a temporary blip.
Instead of adding rigs, they are focusing on operational efficiencies, share buybacks, and debt reduction to avoid political risks like windfall profit taxes or accusations of price gouging amid higher gas prices for consumers.
U.S. crude production already hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 through technology improvements rather than new drilling, and companies expect market conditions to normalize quickly once the conflict ends.
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