July 14, 2026 [Argus Media]- The IEA warned that any return to conflict between the US and Iran could quickly derail the fragile recovery in global oil supply and demand that began after the mid-June ceasefire.

 
Global oil demand rebounded from its May low of 97.9 million b/d but is still expected to fall by around 1 million b/d to 103.5 million b/d in 2026.

Oil supply jumped by 4.1 million b/d in June to 98.8 million b/d as Middle East exports through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, lifting regional exports by 6.5 million b/d.

Both the IEA’s demand and supply forecasts assume continued improvement in tanker flows through Hormuz; renewed fighting would threaten this recovery and upend market balances.

The agency currently sees a modest supply deficit of around 900,000 b/d in 2026 shifting to a large surplus of 4.6 million b/d in 2027 if the current recovery holds.

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