July 08, 2026 [Reuters]- U.S. oil and gas major Exxon Mobil signaled on ​Tuesday that its second-quarter earnings could see a boost of about $5 ‌billion compared to the previous quarter, as oil prices spiked during the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the company’s refining margins also improved.

Investors scrutinize Exxon’s earnings snapshot for signals on how oil firms will perform ​when they release second-quarter results. The conflict in the Middle East that began ​in February injected a hefty geopolitical risk premium into oil ⁠markets. For months, it virtually shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about ​a fifth of global oil flows.

Benchmark Brent crude had an average closing price ​of $96.68 per barrel during the April-June quarter, up 23% from the first three months of the year. Prices climbed to $109.27 a barrel in April for the first time since 2022.

Exxon’s ​upstream segment could see profits lifted by about $1.6 billion, according to the ​midpoint of estimates provided by the company.

Earnings from refining could see a lift of about $2.6 ‌billion ⁠due to so-called timing effects, according to Exxon’s regulatory filing on Tuesday.

Exxon took a multi-billion dollar hit in the first quarter due to financial hedging related to physical deliveries of cargoes. It said at the time that the positions ​would unwind and lead ​to profitability ⁠in subsequent quarters.

Disruptions due to the war could hurt second-quarter profit across the upstream and downstream units by about $1 billion, the ​filing showed.

The company will report second-quarter results on July 31.

Analysts ​expect Exxon ⁠to report $15.7 billion in adjusted earnings for the quarter, according to consensus analyst estimates compiled by LSEG, about triple first quarter earnings. This could raise eyebrows among Americans feeling ⁠pain ​at the pump. U.S. President Donald Trump has pressed ​oil companies to do more to lower gasoline prices.