April 24, 2026 [Reuters]- Italian energy group Eni ​nearly doubled its share buyback to 2.8 billion euros ($3.3 billion) and improved its 2026 guidance on cash flow ‌on Friday, betting on a long-lasting effect of the Iran war on oil and gas prices.

State-controlled Eni reported first-quarter adjusted net profit of 1.3 billion euros, down from 1.4 billion euros in the same period last year, which had benefited from one-off income, and below an analyst consensus forecast of 1.5 ​billion euros provided by the company.

Analysts pointed to maintenance at refining sites and continued margin pressure on Eni’s chemical business ​as reasons for the miss.

“Heavy planned maintenance in the downstream businesses sees Eni first quarter earnings ⁠below market expectations, albeit perhaps setting up for a better Q2,” said Citi analysts.

Earlier this month, Eni’s European rivals flagged their ​trading desks made billions of dollars from the energy supply crunch caused by the Iran war, helping offset the conflict’s impact on production ​operations.

Eni’s CEO recently said the group was considering an alliance with a commodity trader to create its own trading business.

POSITIVE VIEW ON OIL, GAS PRICES

The Italian group revised up its expectations for Brent crude, gas prices and refining margin in 2026, predicting that the surge in commodity prices would continue.

The ​company’s shares were up around 1.2% at 0940 GMT.

The share buyback was hiked on the back of an improved macroeconomic scenario ​coupled with a more positive view on underlying cash flow for the year, now seen at 13.8 billion euros from 11.5 billion previously, the ‌company said.

A ⁠positive surprise could also arrive from Eni’s majority owned Vaar Energi, which hinted on Wednesday at an extraordinary dividend this year if energy prices remain elevated.

Eni’s oil and gas production rose 9% in the quarter, driven by project ramp-ups in West Africa, Norway and startups in Angola, as well as good operational continuity, offset by some limited impact from Middle East disruptions.

Exploration added around 1 billion barrels ​of oil equivalent of fresh ​resources, with discoveries in Angola, ⁠Ivory Coast and Libya.

“Thanks to our high-quality and diversified asset portfolio … E&P low breakeven prices and resilient financial structure, with gearing at historic lows, we are uniquely positioned to capture scenario improvements and ​to share expected upside with shareholders,” CEO Claudio Descalzi said.

REFINING AND CHEMICALS STILL IN THE ​RED

The refining business ⁠could not benefit much from a jump in refining product prices linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.

Utilisation rate fell to 66% from 74% a year earlier, with the business also suffering from disruptions at Eni’s co-owned site in ⁠the Gulf.

The ​division reduced losses from a year earlier, but was still 47 million euros ​in the red.

Eni’s chemicals business also reduced losses.

Net debt increased 1.3 billion euros quarter on quarter to 10.8 billion euros at the end of March, with proforma ​gearing at 15% versus a target of 10% to 15%.