April 11, 2026 [Market Watch]- Following six weeks of war in Middle East, more than 60 energy facilities have been struck across the Persian Gulf. The damage spans at least nine countries, and can be easily counted in terms of shuttered crude-oil terminals and smoking natural-gas refineries.
What’s harder to measure is what comes next — and how long a recovery might take. That’s one of the key factors at play as a U.S. delegation is set to meet with Iranian counterparts in Pakistan over the weekend about their fragile cease-fire.
Drone and missile attacks by both U.S.-Israeli and Iranian forces have pushed the Middle East conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz — hitting refineries, oil fields, ports and gas plants across Gulf states including Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman, with different degrees of damage, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Commodities Research.
“We expect most attacks will not cause long-lasting disruptions. Some facilities, however, will face lengthy repair timelines, with at least eight assets appearing severely impacted,” a team led by Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, said Thursday in a client note.
The table below shows the eight energy facilities with the highest levels of damage. Qatar’s Ras Laffan oil-and-gas complex, for example, may require years of repairs to restore 17% of its damaged capacity, while Bahrain’s Sitra refinery was struck twice, JPMorgan’s team said.
| Asset | Country | Asset Type | Operator | Capacity | Capacity Outage | Unit | Degree of Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shahid Dolati Oil Depot | Iran | Fuel distribution terminal | NIORDC | N/A | N/A | kbbl | High, most storage tanks destroyed, per satellite imagery |
| Shahr-e Rey Oil Depot | Iran | Fuel distribution terminal | NIORDC | N/A | N/A | kbbl | High, several tanks destroyed, per satellite imagery |
| South Pars Phases 2-8 | Iran | Oil field | NIOC | 944 | 944 | kbd | High, missile strike caused widespread shut-ins |
| Rasgas 2 T3-T5 | Qatar | LNG facility | QatarEnergy LNG | 14 | 14 | mpta | High, train 4 damaged by missiles (about 5 mtpa), long repairs needed |
| Rasgas 3 T6-T7 | Qatar | LNG facility | QatarEnergy LNG | 16 | 16 | mpta | High, train 6 damaged by missiles (about 8 mtpa), long repairs needed |
| Habshan Complex | UAE | Gas processing | ADNOC | 6 | 6 | bscfd | High, significant damage reported, one person killed from falling debris |
| Bahrain Sitra Refinery | Bahrain | Refinery | BAPCO (Bahrain) | 448 | 448 | kbd | High, 50% of capacity (with 1 CDU) severely damaged, several months to ramp back up |
| Tehran Refinery | Iran | Refinery | Tehran Oil Refining Company | 250 | 250 | kbd | High, several fuel tanks damaged, but operations can return within month |
Oil refineries were hit the hardest, with about 2.4 million barrels per day of capacity taken offline across 20 Gulf coast plants, according to the JPMorgan team. Recovery is expected in stages over the coming weeks and months.
Two industries, two problems
Global oil output in March had an estimated shortfall of 8 million barrels a day, or 8% less than needed, according BNY.
“Historically, crude production tends to recover more quickly, particularly if the damage is not structural,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth. “But the damage we’ve seen has been more concentrated in refining and [liquefied-natural-gas] infrastructure. Those facilities typically take longer to repair and restart than upstream production.”
Upstream production, or the process of getting oil out of the ground, is relatively straightforward; it’s easier to isolate the problem and restart the system quickly. By contrast, oil refineries and LNG plants are more complex, tightly connected systems that rely on specialized equipment and precise operating conditions. Damage to one key part can halt the entire facility, and repairs tend to take longer because of stricter safety requirements. As a result, even if crude production comes back, fuel and gas supplies can remain constrained due to slower recovery in these downstream facilities.
The existing crude-oil problem isn’t even infrastructure-related. “It’s just the fact that they can’t get through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, a long-only firm specialized in energy-infrastructure investments.
On the other hand, the destruction of the LNG facility in Qatar is probably the most impactful on the global economy — and it’s the reason why global LNG prices in Europe and Asia will be higher for an extended period of time, Thummel said.
Surging energy prices around the world have forced many countries to adopt policy measures in response to the disruption to global fuel markets.
But there have been some signs of relief. The most active Dutch TTF natural-gas contract ↑ TTFCN26 +3.05% on Friday settled at €43.64, after reaching a high of €74.00 on March 19, according to FactSet data.
The temporary cease-fire deal between the U.S. and Iran has been helpful, but it doesn’t solve immediate supply challenges, said Baron Lamarre, co-founder of the International Digital Exchange and former head of trading at Petronas.
“If the cease-fire holds,” Lamarre said he thinks it still could take months and even years to rebuild the damaged oil industry throughout the Middle East. That’s why he sees a floor of at least $80 a barrel for oil, potentially over the next two to three years.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery ↓ CL00 -2.36% ↓ CL1 -2.37% ↓ CLK26 -2.37% lost 13.4% this week to settle at $96.57 on Friday. June Brent crude ↓ BRN00 -1.50% ↓ BRNM26 -1.50% was off 12.7% for the week, to $95.20. Both benchmark contracts logged their largest one-week percentage declines since April 24, 2020, according to FactSet data.
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