January 14, 2026 [Biodiesel Magazine]- The U.S. Energy Information Administration currently expects the production of renewable diesel and other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), to expand in 2027, according to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 13. Biodiesel production is expected to remain unchanged next year.
The EIA maintained its forecast that renewable diesel production will average 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. The agency currently expects renewable diesel production to expand to 290,000 barrels per day in 2027. Renewable diesel production averaged 190,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of renewable diesel are currently expected to average average -20,000 barrels per day, an adjustment when compared to the December STEO outlook of -30,000 barrels per day. The EIA expects net imports of renewable diesel to remain at -20,000 barrels per day in 2027. Net imports of biodiesel averaged -30,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA lowered its forecast for 2026 renewable diesel consumption to 220,000 barrels per day, down from the December outlook of 230,000 barrels per day. Renewable diesel consumption I expected to expand to 260,000 barrels per day in 2027. According to the EIA, renewable diesel consumption averaged 160,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA maintained its forecast that biodiesel production will average 100,000 barrels per day this year, and currently expects production to remain at that level in 2027. Biodiesel production averaged 80,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Net imports of biodiesel are expected to be at zero in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from both the December STEO and net imports levels reported for 2025.
The EIA maintained its forecast that biodiesel consumption will average 90,000 barrels per day this year and currently expects biodiesel consumption to expand to 100,000 barrels per day in 2027. Biodiesel consumption was at 70,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA maintained it forecast that the production of “other” biofuels, defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel, including SAF and alternative jet fuel and biojet; renewable naphtha; renewable gasoline and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization, will average 40,000 barrels per day in 2026, unchanged when compared to the 40,000 barrels per day of production reported for 2025. The production of “other” biofuels is expected to expand to 50,000 barrels per day next year.
Net imports of “other” biofuels are expected to be at zero in 2026 and 2027, unchanged from the December STEO and the net import levels reported for 2025.
The consumption of “other” biofuels is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2026, unchanged from the December forecast and the level of consumption reported for 2025. The consumption of “other” biofuels is expected to expand to 50,000 barrels per day in 2027.
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