October 07, 2025 [Reuters]- Exxon Mobil said on Monday changes in crude oil prices over the third quarter could impact the company’s upstream earnings from negative $100 million to as much as a positive $300 million.

The company also signaled in a regulatory filing that stronger margins in the refining business could boost earnings by $300 million to $700 million, compared with the second quarter.

Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged $68.17 per barrel from July through September, up 2% from the previous quarter. U.S. natural gas prices declined 12.5% from the previous quarter and averaged $3.07 per million British thermal units.

Exxon said changes in gas prices could affect its quarterly upstream earnings from a negative $200 million to as much as a positive $200 million.

The company also said restructuring costs could negatively impact overall earnings by $400 million to $600 million. Last week, the company said it will lay off 2,000 workers globally, particularly in Canada and across the European Union, as part of a long-term restructuring plan.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Phillip Jungwirth expects the structural cost saving to be a tailwind, but could be offset by higher expenses.

Exxon’s regulatory filing provides a snapshot of market factors that affected the top U.S. oil firm’s business and is watched by investors for signals about the performance of the broader industry and other producers.

The company will release its final quarterly results on October 31.

Analysts expect Exxon to report adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share for the third quarter, according to consensus estimates compiled by LSEG.

French oil major TotalEnergies and UK-based BP will report third-quarter results on October 30 and November 4.

The industry bellwether had posted $5.4 billion in upstream earnings for the second quarter.