February 14, 2025 [Pipeline & Gas Journal]- U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 6% to a two-week high on Thursday on a slightly bigger-than-expected storage draw last week, rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a drop in daily output and forecasts for cold weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 100 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended February 7.

That was a little over the 95-Bcf draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a drop of 60 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 144 bcf for this time of year.

Analysts said energy firms pulled less gas out of storage last week than the five-year normal because mild weather kept heating demand low.

Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 21.2 cents, or 6.0%, to $3.777 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at 10:33 a.m. EST (1533 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since January 24.

That would be the front-month’s biggest daily percentage gain since February 3 when it jumped about 10% and puts the contract up for a fourth day in a row for the first time since December 2024.

Before EIA released the storage report, the contract was trading up about 5%.

Looking ahead, the 12-month futures strip was trading at $4.15 per MMBtu, its highest since December 2022.

Supply and Demand

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in February, up from 102.7 Bcf/d in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 Bcf/d in December 2023.

But with the return of extreme cold freezing wells in some parts of the country again, daily output was on track to drop by 3.7 Bcf/d over the past seven days to a preliminary two-week low of 103.0 Bcf/d on Feb. 13. That compares with a daily record high of 106.7 Bcf/d on February 6. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through Feb. 22 before switching to near normal levels from February 23-28.

With mostly colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts that average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 138.4 Bcf/d this week to 145.9 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG’s outlook on Wednesday.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.3 Bcf/d so far in February, up from 14.6 Bcf/d in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit 15.9 Bcf/d on Thursday, up from 15.6 Bcf/d on Wednesday and an average of 15.3 Bcf/d over the prior seven days. If correct, LNG flows on Thursday would top the current daily record of 15.8 Bcf/d on January 18.

The latest LNG feedgas high came with flows to Venture Global’s 2.6-Bcf/d Plaquemines export plant under construction in Louisiana set to hit a record 1.4 Bcf/d on Tuesday-Thursday.

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